Strategic Drivers
Climate Change (not just “global warming”)
For most of the past few hundred thousand years the level of carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere hovered around 275 parts per million (ppm). By the early 1800’s --- around the beginning of the Industrial evolution --- this began to change. Atmospheric CO2 levels began to rise as we burned more oil, coal, natural gas, and other carbon-based fuels. Today the average level of CO2 in our atmosphere now exceeds 387 ppm. This level is increasing by about 2 ppm per year, and the rate of increase is itself growing.
Until recently, most climatologists agreed that we would be fine as long as CO2 levels stayed below about 450 ppm. However, a recent paper co-authored by James Hansen, one of the world’s leading climatologists, argues that the maximum safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere is actually 350 ppm. As the CO2 level rises above 350 ppm, he predicts the earth’s climate will become increasingly unstable. Climate change skeptics argue that this is based on computer models, and is therefore not credible. However, James Hansen, the author of Storms of My Grandchildren, points out that the number 350 is actually based on detailed examination of the historical record (ice cores, sediments, etc.), NOT computer models. It is hard to argue with real data.
The bad news is that we are already above the safe threshold of 350 ppm. If we continue on our present path, CO2 will reach 450 ppm within 30 years and exceed 750 ppm by the end of the 21st century. Nobody really knows what will happen if we get to 750 ppm, but the possibilities are horrifying: severe droughts, dust storms, hurricanes, tornados, wild temperature swings, massive species extinctions, rapid migration of invasive species, extreme disruptions of groundwater levels, etc. The Ganges, Euphrates, Mekong, Nile, Colorado, Mississippi, and most of the other major rivers around the world will shrink dramatically or dry up completely as the glaciers and snows that feed them disappear. Sea levels will rise around the world, and hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homes. Florida, the Texas coast, large parts of Manhattan, New Orleans, and many, many other areas will be underwater. Large areas of the Midwest will no longer be hospitable for growing wheat or raising cattle, and most of California will be too warm and too dry to grow grapes. But the developing world will get hit much harder than the United States.
The bottom line is that we have to quickly wean ourselves off of carbon based fuels completely (or else capture and sequester the carbon). But, to date, there are no proven commercial scale CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) technologies. If we do not make this shift, it is extremely likely that we will eventually spiral downward into cataclysmic and irreversible atmospheric heating, to the point that Earth's atmosphere becomes uninhabitable. Dr. Hansen calls this the Venus syndrome.
At Ground Floor Partners, we take these predictions seriously. However, where others see hopeless problems without solutions, we see opportunities. We have an opportunity to take back our cities and make them clean, healthy and safe again. We can reduce our energy use by retrofitting buildings, increasing recycling, and re-examining and retooling the way we do just about everything. We can move away from oil and coal, toward renewable and clean energy sources such as solar, wind, biofuels, and dozens of other possibilities. We can shift away from cars toward high speed rail and other efficient mass transportation systems. We can become less consumption oriented and focus on more important things.
If we act now, and act rationally, we can avoid most of the worst effects of climate change. We can gradually reduce global CO2 emissions and eventually get back to 350 ppm or even lower. This will take time, but it can be done. Smart technology and clever innovation will not solve all of our problems, but they can help us get there. We do not believe “sustainability” and “green” are cute catch-phrases or marketing gimmicks; they are the way of the future.
Sources:
There are literally thousands of articles, books, technical papers, and blogs on the subject of climate change. Here are just a few. Each of these sites contains links to other sites, including discussion and analysis of claims by “climate change skeptics”. But the facts are clear: climate change is real, it is happening now, it is (mostly) caused by man, and we still have time to avert complete disaster.
